to Friday. On Monday, week over week, natural gas arrivals at LNG terminals were 4% higher.
The weather is expected to be much colder than average in the mid-West over the next 6-10 days and moderating over the next 8-14 days but still colder than normal. This scenario will increase heating demand.
Technical Analysis
Natural gas prices broke out to fresh 13-year highs and are poised to trend higher. Target resistance is seen near the July 2008 highs at 13.68. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.93.
Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 96, above the overbought trigger level of 80.
Medium-term momentum has turned positive. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to an acceleration in the underlying price of natural gas.
The Ukraine war has sparked a Western push for sanctions against Moscow, including moves to drastically cut purchases of Russian gas.
Italy buys the vast majority of its natural gas from overseas, and is one of the most Russia-reliant gas importers in Europe, with over 40 percent of its imports coming from the country.
But Italy also imports significant amounts from Algeria, including some 6.4 billion cubic metres of Algerian gas during the first quarter of 2021, a 109 percent uptick from the previous year.
The war in Ukraine and the subsequent campaign of Western sanctions have prompted Rome to step up the search for alternative sources, with gas giant Algeria an obvious option.
“Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine I announced that Italy would organise quickly to reduce its dependence on Russian gas,” Draghi said.
