Pakistan stands on the brink of a major political and constitutional showdown as a fierce dispute emerges between the federal government and provinces over control of the country’s estimated $8 trillion in rare earth mineral reserves—critical assets now considered more strategic than oil and gas.
In a recent episode of his television show, senior political analyst Najam Sethi explored the escalating controversy, highlighting the tug-of-war over ownership, control, and profit-sharing of upcoming mining projects.
Provincial governments argue that they are entitled to up to 90% of revenues from any minerals discovered within their territories, citing constitutional rights and historical grievances. The federal government, however, maintains that strategic resources belong to the federation and insists on a dominant role in managing exploration, extraction, and foreign partnerships.
This dispute revives long-standing tensions dating back to the discovery of natural gas in Sui, Balochistan, where similar grievances over resource control fueled resentment. Today, with rare earth elements—essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, military systems, and space technology—rising in global importance, the stakes are higher than ever.
Islamabad, aware of the minerals’ immense economic and geopolitical value, has intensified efforts to lead the sector, citing provincial limitations in technical expertise, financial capacity, and international credibility. A recent high-level conference, attended by the Prime Minister, Army Chief, and foreign investors, showcased a federal report valuing Pakistan’s rare earth wealth at nearly twenty times its current GDP.
However, the 18th Constitutional Amendment, which strengthened provincial autonomy over natural resources, stands as a major hurdle. Legal experts expect the conflict to reach the newly formed Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court, where a landmark ruling could redefine resource governance in Pakistan for generations.
As provinces prepare to push back against federal ambitions, the coming months promise a historic and high-stakes battle over who truly owns Pakistan’s future prosperity.
