LONDON: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward for 2025 and 2026, marking the first cut since December. The adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected data from the first quarter and trade tensions driven by new US tariffs.
In its monthly report released Monday, OPEC projected global oil demand to rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026—both forecasts lowered by 150,000 bpd compared to last month.
The report cited uncertainty from US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed trade tariffs and OPEC+ plans to increase production as contributing factors to the downward revision and recent oil price pressure.
OPEC also reduced its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.0% (down from 3.1%) and for 2025 to 3.1% (down from 3.2%), warning that ongoing trade disputes are clouding the short-term economic outlook.
Despite the lowered forecasts, oil prices held steady after the report, with Brent crude trading near $66 a barrel, supported by US tariff exemptions. Nonetheless, prices have dropped over 10% this month.
OPEC’s long-term demand outlook remains more optimistic than that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates oil demand peaking this decade due to the global shift toward cleaner energy.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ production in March dipped by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, mainly due to output cuts by Iraq and Nigeria. However, Kazakhstan defied its quota, increasing output by 37,000 bpd to 1.852 million bpd—well above its January–March target of 1.468 million bpd. The country has pledged to meet its commitments in April and compensate for prior overproduction.
