LAHORE: Electricity demand may go down by 25-30 percent if the economic downturn and corona impact continues, said Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) sources.
Already, they said, winter is gone with traditional low demand as low as 50 percent of the summer demand. The current demand for electricity has reduced to 13,000 megawatt comparing with 17,500 megawatt of March-April 2019, they added.
They said a lockdown in the country since March 24th has curtailed the industrial load exceptionally. Similarly, there is a complete closure of hotels and commercial activities in the country. Besides, a large number of offices have reduced the number of employees at offices or calling them offices on the alternate day which reduced to the electricity load by and large on the system.
The spokesman of power division, when contacted, confirmed a drop in electricity demand, saying the industrial consumption load is not more than 2,000-2,500 megawatt in total. Similarly, he added, the load of the commercial sector (which escalates to 2000 megawatt during peak hours) is also not that much high comparing to the domestic consumption which falls around 70-80 percent of the total load. At present, he said, the factor of mild weather is contributing more to the low demand for electricity than lockdown. But he agreed that the factor of lockdown could contribute more in case it prolongs further.
Therefore, the electricity consumption has reduced extraordinary that may lead to a number of technical problems, including payment of capacity charges of idle power plants. However, they added in the same breath that the ratio of line losses reduces during the low demand. They further apprehended a substantial reduction in the recoveries due to a low demand.
Already, they said, the power division has instructed the DISCOs to receive electricity bills for March 2020 in three installments from the domestic consumers consuming up to 300 units (phase-1). This will have an impact of Rs 18 billion as a shortfall in cash recovery. In case, this scheme is extended for the same set of consumers for three months (April, May and June 2020 in three installments), the impact will be Rs 52 billion, they added.
Meanwhile, the power division is considering freezing the tariff for three months to minimize the financial burden on the coronavirus-hit consumers and the total impact has been estimated around Rs 381 billion. The sources said taxes and duties for a period of six months on each unit of electricity are likely to be waived under the plan which would decrease the cost by Rs 4/unit. The impact on the revenue side of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is estimated at Rs 202 billion.
